ORDER OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN

of March 1, 2004 No. 86

About the Program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2015

List of amending documents

For the purpose of determination of the priority directions of development of national economy in the long term, the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan decides achievements on this basis of sustained economic growth and growth in prosperity of the population of the republic:

1. Approve the enclosed Program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2015.

2. To the ministries, departments and executive bodies on places (hukumata):

- take measures for program implementation of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2015;

- develop industry and regional development programs of economy for the period till 2015 taking into account the purposes and the tasks set by the Program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2015.

To the Ministry of economic development and trade of the Republic of Tajikistan to render assistance to the ministries, departments and executive bodies on places (hukumata) in development of industry and regional programs.

3. To the Ministry of economic development and trade of the Republic of Tajikistan, the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, the ministries, departments and executive bodies on places (hukumata) in case of development of forecasts of social and economic development of the republic for medium-term and short-term perspectives, and also when forming drafts of republican and local budgets to provide realization of provisions of the Program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2015.

4. To provide to the Ministry of economic development and trade of the Republic of Tajikistan bringing the specified Program to the relevant ministries, departments and executive bodies on places (hukumat).

 

Approved by the Order of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan of March 1, 2004 No. 86

The program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2015

Introduction

Thanks to constructive peacekeeping activities of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan E. Sh. Rakhmonov in the country also national consent was succeeded to ensure the peace, wide perspectives for socio-political and economic progress, cultural and spiritual updating of society opened.

Because the reliable premises for ensuring dynamic development of the republic are created, the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan recognized necessary to develop the Development program of economy of the republic for long-term outlook.

The order of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan of June 21, 2001 "About development of the Program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2015" to the Ministry of Economy and Trade of the Republic of Tajikistan it is entrusted to No. 316 together with other ministries and departments, local hukumata, taking into account the developed economic and demographic situation, transition of national economy to the market relations and structural adjustment in economy, to develop the long-term Program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2015.

Development of the Program was based on the following purposeful instructions and tasks determined by the President of the country E. Sh. Rakhmonov in the field of economic and social development of Tajikistan:

economic growth is the most important mechanism of providing employment opportunities through creation of new workplaces and increase in level of living of the population;

the basis of the economy is ensuring macroeconomic stabilization without which ensuring accumulatings and implementation of investments is impossible;

natural resources shall play noticeable role in structural adjustment, forming of new industries and to be source of ensuring economic growth;

in the conditions of Tajikistan without creation of the developed industry, providing high level of living of the population, economic independence, social safety the successful solution of social problems is impossible;

our main strategic objective in the closest budushchemzaversheni of construction of Sangtudinsky hydroelectric power station, construction of small hydroelectric power stations and continuation of construction to the Horn of certain hydroelectric power station;

of effectively functioning market economy creation of the corresponding financial system satisfying requirements of the created companies, and also reconstruction and re-equipment acting is important for creation;

institutional transformations and enhancement of system of public administration, along with carrying out macroeconomic reforms and change of patterns of ownership, are one of the most priority tasks;

the entrepreneurship and active development of small and medium business in the country will become major factor of development of economy;

without regular development of construction and strengthening of its base development of economy is impossible. And if we do not create powerful construction industry, then plan development and long-term programs will not make any sense;

as is well-known, Tajikistan for many years was the raw country. Now the task is necessary, having imported new technology and having widely applied it in production, to gradually turn the country into the exporter of finished goods;

the agricultural industry for our country is one of priority.

Development of the Development program of economy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2015 is performed taking into account parameters and the main directions of development determined in development programs of industries and industrial complexes which were approved by the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan:

"The state program on conversion and realization of gemstones and stone - bright raw materials for 2001-2005";

"The development program and placement of gold and silver mining and processing enterprises of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2010";

"The concept of development of fuel and energy complex for the period till 2015";

"Document of strategy of reducing poverty";

"The medium-term program of conclusion from crisis agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Tajikistan and realization of the priority directions of strategy of its industries for the period till 2005";

"The development program of silkworm breeding and silk industry in the Republic of Tajikistan for 2001-2005";

"The republican program of increase in productivity of grain crops and increase in production of grain in the Republic of Tajikistan for 2001-2005";

"The development program of cotton growing in the Republic of Tajikistan for 2002-2005";

The program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2015 is key stage in realization of economic policy of the Government of the country directed to acceleration of rates of economic growth, increase in level of living and reducing scales of poverty.

The program of economic development shall become the basic document determining actions of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan, local hukumat, the ministries and departments not only for long-term outlook, but also for each five years.

 

1. The purposes, tasks and stages of the Program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2015

1.1. Purposes of the Program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan

The program of economic development includes assessment of the existing situation, the purposes and ways are proved in it, mechanisms and levers of achievement of these are more whole. The program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan for long-term outlook assumes availability of the strategic, political, economic and social objectives.

Strategic objectives consist in ensuring sustainable development of society on the basis of consecutive carrying out policy of forming of highly effective industrial society. Achievement of this purpose assumes on the basis of new structural policy prevention of deindustrialization, substantial increase of investment activity, high security of savings in use of production resources, ensuring openness of economy and growth of qualification level of manpower.

Political goals are directed to creation of economic conditions for strengthening of political sovereignty and economic safety of the republic, to realization of foreign policy which fully reflects national interests of the country.

Economic targets assume creation of the material and technical resources developed economically providing in the future is preferential intensive development of the national economy, more complete realization of economic benefits of integration of economy into the world economy, essential increase in rates of economic growth and increase in production per capita.

The social purposes provide implementation of package of measures, the key social problems directed to the decision. Treat them: ensuring full employment of manpower, decline in unemployment to the maximum permissible size, increase in material and spiritual wealth of the population, decrease in poverty to limiting and critical level, development of urbanizatsionny processes, forming of the center as most important factor of social stability of society.

1.2. Tasks of the Program of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan

Determination of model of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan. Geographical, natural and resource, demographic and other features of the republic, level of economic development, welfare and quality of life of the population cause need of the choice, within socially oriented model of market economy, policy of the accelerated industrialization due to preferential development of key industrial industries and complexes. Development of economy of the republic in this direction is the main condition of conclusion of the country from deep economic crisis and creation of real premises for transition of economy of the republic to qualitatively new step - the accelerated economic growth.

The practical realization of such strategy of economic development can be enabled in case of development of the new economic policy based on specific criteria of long-term social and economic development of the republic. Such criteria are: ensuring the maximum employment of the population in economy, sharp increase in amount of gross domestic product per capita, decline in unemployment to the extreme size, achievement of high growth rates of performance of social labor and investments (gross accumulatings).

The specified criteria of economic development of the republic are achievable under condition if the economic policy is directed to forming of model of industrial and agrarian economy. In the conditions of market economy the industrial and agrarian model of economic development assumes not so much reorganization of industry proportions in the national economy how many review of financial policy of the country towards strengthening of its influence on development of real production sector, especially in industrial industries. Generally, economic and financial policy shall be oriented to involvement in economic turnover of natural resources for the accelerated development of the industry and forming of the corresponding infrastructure. It is represented that the industrial and agrarian model of economy is the determining condition for more complete solution of key problems of economic, social and political development of the republic.

Reasons for ways of development of economy of the Republic of Tajikistan. On the level of development of productive forces, extent of involvement in economic turnover of natural resources and labor potential in social production the republic belongs to areas of pioneer development. Assessment of level of use of potential production and economic losses in the national economy demonstrates that increase in production reserves due to increase in use of the existing production capacities in the republic huge. Therefore the maximum use in the forthcoming 10-15 years of mainly extensive production factors is the main component of economic development of the republic.

Level of economic development of the republic and extent of use of production factors (manpower, the capital created in the past, natural resources and entrepreneurship) give the grounds to assume that in the long term economic development of the country will be connected mainly with the extensive growth of economy.

Development of productive forces of the republic will go due to construction of new production enterprises, radical reorganization of all infrastructure industries, the cardinal problem resolution of improvement of quality of fast-growing manpower. However forming and development of industrial and agrarian economy due to the maximum use mainly of extensive factors of increase in production can become reality if economic mechanisms of the national economy fully promote program implementation of involvement in economic turnover of natural resources of industrial value.

1.3. Stages of program implementation of economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan

Prevention of output gap and recovery from the crisis (2001-2005).

Since 1997, in economy of the republic the tendency of increase in production and economic activity therefore GDP amount in comparison with previous years began to increase is observed. At the same time both in economy in general, and in its separate industries the modern production rate of goods and services is much lower than that production volume which existed before disintegration of common economic space. Therefore for exit from economic crisis it is necessary to prevent first of all output gap in all industries of real production sector and to reach higher annual average rates of surplus of GDP. Calculations show that at this stage annual average rates of surplus of GDP shall be at least 9-10% and in 2005 in comparison with 2000 the total amount of GDP shall increase more than in time 1,6. The main attention should be concentrated on the maximum use of the existing production capacities, reconstruction and modernization, restructuring and reshaping of the existing companies, the maximum increase in products in industries of agro-industrial complex, enhancement of structure of foreign economic relations here that will allow to provide steady positive balance of foreign trade turnover. For economy conclusion program implementation from crisis crucial importance will have increase in role of financial credit policy in effective functioning of real production sector.

Complete economic and financial stabilization (2006 - 2010). As a result of the economic development providing prevention of recession of productions and conclusion of economy from crisis condition, the economy of the republic will have sufficient resources in order that already at stage of revival of economy to stimulate not only increase in the consumer demand, but also demand for investments. As a result of sharp decrease of the inflation rate and increase in investment activity there will be macroeconomic, first of all, financial stabilization. For fixing of achievements in the field of economic and financial stabilization it is necessary to reduce annual surplus of consumer price index to moderate level. It will promote stimulation of investment of free money not only in trade and intermediary activities, but also in production. In the predicted period for ensuring complete economic and financial stabilization it is necessary to pursue soft cash credit policy instead of tough and restrictive monetary policy.

It is supposed that as a result of complete economic and financial stabilization annual average growth rates of economically active population during the considered period will make % 3,9 in comparison with 2001-2005, the level of the actual unemployment 14, of % against 20, of %. Therefore, increase in number of economically active population will happen only due to essential growth of employment of the population in the relevant sectors of economy. Increase in the manpower occupied in real production sector in combination with growth of capital endowment of work and increase in its performance shall provide annual average rates of surplus of GDP for 10% at least.

Sustained economic growth (2011-2015). At this stage of program implementation of economic development of the country the foundation of transfer of the national economy from extensive way of development on mainly intensive way of economic growth will be laid. At the same stage real fundamentals of comprehensively developed market economy, full-blooded commodity markets and services, the share and currency markets, the labor markets and other elements of market infrastructure are created.

All this combined shall provide steady rates of economic growth. Annual average rates of surplus of GDP during the considered period will make at least 10%; 9,6 labor productivity; the manpower occupied in the national economy - % 4,8; level of the actual unemployment will decrease to 8,3 against % 25,2 in 2000. The upward tendency of cost efficiency of capital investments and the fixed business assets due to providing favorable ratio in dynamics of GDP growth, on the one hand, and fixed capital and investments, with another will be characteristic of this period. The strong growth of economy will be promoted by real integration of national economy in economy of the CIS and in world economic processes based on forming of highly effective structure of the national economy.

 

2. Main problems of development of economy of the Republic of Tajikistan

2.1. Demographic problems

Demographic processes of the last decade created serious obstacles on the way of economic revival and acceleration of rates се developments. These processes arose and were developed owing to the most different reasons and had also the most different effects for economy. The most serious of them are:

a) losses of considerable number of the population in the years of civil opposition. By different estimates, about 50 thousand people died. The main part of the dead was constituted by able-bodied population (from 18 to 40 years);

b) mass migration of the Russian-speaking population. For various reasons, more than 90% of the Russian-speaking population and most of Tajiks and Uzbeks of natives of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, left the republic. As a result Tajikistan lost considerable part of the scientific and technical intellectuals and highly skilled personnel and specialists;

c) large-scale mass external labor migration of aboriginal population to the countries of the FSU and beyond. Because of extreme poverty expansion of scales of labor migration does not stop so far. Considerable number of citizens of Tajikistan work outside the country. This fact, on the one hand, demonstrates poverty mitigation attempts. From other party, the labor migration means degradation of domestic human capital as the vast majority of labor migrants works not on the specialty, and is used at the works which are not requiring skilled work. Besides, national economy lost the most qualified part of workers. Even in the conditions of the high level of unemployment the economy suffers shortage of skilled workers;

d) adverse changes in the ratio urban and rural population. In the last decade decrease process specific the weight of urban population accelerated (with 32,8 to % 26,5). Intensity of this process in the 90th years was 3 times higher in comparison with the 80th years. In fact, Tajikistan faced very undesirable, unnatural and dangerous tendency of deurbanization of society;

e) the developed labor and age structure of the population does not promote the solution of tasks of conclusion of economy from deep crisis and achievement of high rates of economic growth. Comparison of absolute values of number of able-bodied population and working on hiring and not on hiring shows that the formal employment level covers 64% of able-bodied population. According to the last population census, 524,1 of one thousand people of working-age (% 16,8) are in dependence. It means high demographic load of the working part of the population which direct consequence extremely low level of production accumulatings is;

e) increase in the average size of family and coefficient of detnost. For the last 20 years the average size of family grew with 5,7 to 7,1 persons. The average detnost of family constitutes 4,2 of children on one family that creates obstacles in way of ensuring tender balance concerning employment and leads to naturalization of household;

g) reducing life expectancy as direct result of deterioration in vital conditions of people, decline in quality of services of health care. Over the last 10 years average life expectancy of the population was reduced with 71,4 to 68,4 of years. In the country the mortality index increases, the state of health of the population worsens;

h) high rates of natural increase of the population lead to excessive increase in density of population in all natural and geographical regions of the country and promote decrease in reservoir of resources of life support in these regions, in particular in the mountain territories. It is about such resources as land and pasturable grounds, haymakings, deposits of minerals, the natural woods, fauna, long-term plantings etc. There is deterioration in the habitat of the person.

The solution of the listed above demographic problems shall create necessary premises for ensuring sustainable development of the country.

The main ways of their decision are:

consecutive implementation of active population policy, first of all transition to intensive type of reproduction of the population and implementation of actions for ensuring reproductive human health;

effective state regulation of the migratory processes directed to decrease in losses of human capital and achievement of positive balance of migration of rather skilled engineering employees, specialists, teachers, health workers, scientists;

forming of system of interstate regulation of external labor migration from this version migratory losses of human capital were minimized, and migrants were provided employment in the specialty and that the structure of human capital of the country significantly improved;

regulation of labor migration shall include

actions for providing for each migrant - the citizen of Tajikistan, full social protection in the countries of the FSU and beyond, possibility of use of all types of social insurance outside the country;

implementation of system of effective actions for transfer of the money earned with migrants via channels of bank system of the respective countries and Tajikistan to their families to any settlement of the republic;

implementation of policy of expansion of economic and social reservoir of residential locations, strengthening of bases of city conduct of life, prevention of tendency of deurbanization of the country, implementation of effective actions for urbanization of the rural inhabited places;

more rational territorial redistribution of the population on the basis of creating favorable conditions of life in the low-mastered territories, use of material incentives for resettlement of people from the overpopulated Items in sparsely populated or on the uninhabited territories having the sufficient potential for life support of people;

implementation of actions for radical improvement of system of public health care, more effective performing prevention of diseases, improvement of material logistics of medical institutions, development of sport and organized rest of the population;

carrying out the active tender policy directed to increase in female employment in economy and the social sphere, active participation of women in social and political life of the country, increase in their role in family and society;

more effective and purposeful implementation of actions for promotion of healthy lifestyle among youth, rendering to them the help in creation of family of modern type, promotion of reproductive behavior.

2.2. Problems of employment and unemployment

The collapse of the USSR and gap of economic bonds with the former Soviet republics, transformational recession and civil war led to reducing employment, deepening of deformirovannost of its structure and sharp increase in scales of unemployment.

Change of number of manpower, economically active population and occupied population differs in development of opposite tendencies that is the certificate of expansion unhealthy, economically and socially inefficient processes in the labor market. From 1991 for 2000 the number of manpower increased on % 26,1; the number of economically active population decreased by % 9,0; the number of occupied population - on % 11,5. Data on real employment speak not only about the low level of use of able-bodied population, but also about the deformation not inherent in modern society.

Over the last ten years number occupied in the industry was reduced in time 2,6, increased in agricultural industry on % 28,6; the number of busy women was reduced by % 45,5; including in the industry - in time 2,3; in construction - in time 3,6; in culture and art - in time 2,0; in science - in time 3,0.

Growth of agrarian overpopulation and formation of agrarian structure of employment were followed by essential decrease in level of use of labor power in agricultural industry. In case of increase in specific weight occupied in agricultural industry in total number occupied on 20 percent points (to 45,0 to % 65,0) there was decrease in amounts of agricultural products on % 35,3.

Mainly the agrarian structure of employment promotes labor productivity decline across the nation, deepens agrarian overpopulation, results in stability of industrial backwardness of the country and low level of living of the population.

Owing to well-known processes deformation of vocational structure of the population still continues. The specific weight of technical specialists is lost, the level of unemployment among persons with the higher education grows.

Scales of application of manual, unskilled, hard work increase. The fact that in case of decrease in the employment level of manpower scales of use of child labor extend is paradoxical. The system of professional orientation collapses that is fraught with negative effects for forming of proper high-quality parameters of labor capacity of society and development of economy.

Problems of employment of the unemployed became aggravated owing to availability of the following reasons:

backwardness of all system of the labor market, in particular employment services, with the low level of material equipment inherent in them, transformational security and unattractiveness;

low level of benefits on temporary unemployment;

lack of the effective mechanism of identification of vacant workplaces for the unemployed, especially by separate professions, specialties and qualification;

lack of efficient monitoring system of the labor market. The main solutions of above-mentioned problems are:

enhancement of system of preparation, retraining and advanced training of personnel, as by traditional, and new professions and specialties and specialists of the average and top skills;

system recovery of professional orientation of school students, matching and placement of personnel in the direction of ensuring its compliance to requirements of scientific and technical, social and economic progress;

increase in specific weight occupied in industrial industries of economy in case of simultaneous reducing absolute number occupied in the agricultural sector;

improvement of system of employment of the unemployed;

forming of the flexible labor market capable to occupy certain part of the unemployed by ensuring part-time employment, application of flexible work-rest schedules;

increase in attractiveness of the existing and newly created workplaces based on enhancement of incentive system of work and improvement of working conditions;

regulation of system of external labor migration;

ensuring more complete use of cash workplaces based on their upgrade, reshaping and creation of small firms under the large enterprises operating on the sublease and venture beginnings;

creation of new workplaces, proceeding from the current and perspective demands of commodity market of consumer and technological appointment, taking into account growth in volumes of investments on development of production of goods and service industry.

At the same time measures for accounting and inventory count of the new workplaces which both are available, and created shall be taken that assumes adoption of the relevant decision of the Government of the republic on certification and the organization of forecasting of creation of new workplaces.

2.3. Land and water problems

Development of economy of Tajikistan and effective solution of social problems considerably depend on the solution of the questions connected with the level and intensity of use of land and water resources. The last, as we know, constitute basis of bioclimatic capacity of the country. In general, the country suffers shortage of land resources, in case of excesses water.

Limitation of land is explained by very difficult relief and geographical conditions. Agricultural holdings are constituted by 32,1 of % of the territory of the country, other part of the earth unsuitable for agricultural and selitebny use.

Arable land and long-term plantings in 2000 constituted 840, one thousand hectares; personal plots - 102,3 of one thousand hectares; 66,4 of one thousand hectares is constituted by the lands allocated under personal subsidiary farms. In total area of the cultivated lands in Tajikistan - 1014,4 of one thousand hectares, i.e. 7,1 of % of total area of agricultural holdings. From this Ploshchad 718,9 of one thousand hectares constitute the irrigated land arrays.

In the last 30 years in connection with demographic boom the areas of the cultivated lands significantly decreased per capita that is visible from table 1.

                   Table 1

+------------------------------------------------------------------+
¦                              ¦ 1970г. ¦ 1980г. ¦ 1990г. ¦ 2000 г.¦
+------------------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------¦
¦Площадь  пашни в расчете  на  ¦        ¦        ¦        ¦        ¦
¦душу населения                ¦  0,30  ¦  0,23  ¦  0,17  ¦   0,13 ¦
+------------------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------¦
¦В   том   числе   площадь     ¦        ¦        ¦        ¦        ¦
¦орошаемой пашни на душу       ¦        ¦        ¦        ¦        ¦
¦населения                     ¦  0,17  ¦  0,15  ¦  0,12  ¦   0,08 ¦
+------------------------------------------------------------------+

Data confirm process of bystry reducing the area of the cultivated lands per capita (more than twice), and it in spite of the fact that during this period there was significant increase in this area by economic development of new virgin lands.

With respect thereto there is a number of serious problems which shall be considered in the course of forecasting of social and economic and scientific and technical development of the country. They come down to the following:

in case of current demographic trends even taking into account some decrease in rates of surplus of population by 2015 arable land will per capita be reduced to 0,08 of hectare, the area of the irrigated lands - to 0,06 of hectare;

as a result of uncontrollable city, rural and production construction there is reducing total area of ploughland. Arable land and long-term plantings in 1990 constituted 914 thousand hectares, and by 2000 it decreased to 828,2 of one thousand hectares, or by 85,8 of one thousand hectares;

for the specified period there were agricultural turnover of 60,7 thousand hectares of the earth, including 23 thousand hectares of the irrigated ploughland that is consequence of salinization of the areas, washout of fertile layer of earth, formation of ravines and t. д;

because of sharp shortage of financial resources the meliorative condition of farmlands worsens. In the last 10 years the level of ground waters rose by the areas of more than 100 thousand hectares of the most valuable farmlands to dangerous marks that led to sharp decrease in productivity of crops and in particular cotton;

as a result of essential reducing amounts of introduction of organic and mineral fertilizers there is intensive reduction of amounts of organic substance, i.e. humus in fertile layer of earth;

from year to year scales of erosion of agricultural holdings extend. More than 90% of the processed ploughland are subject to this or that kind of erosion now; annually for various reasons more than 60 thousand hectares of the earth are not sowed.

Statistical information on agricultural areas cannot apply for accuracy. It, first of all, belongs to personal plots which for the known reasons were always shown in smaller quantity. The same, but to a lesser extent, treats irrigation arable lands which are at the disposal of industrial enterprises. Directive bringing to the last indicators of productivity became the reason of conscious representation of unreliable information to higher bodies about land;

annually serious problems in Tajikistan arise in connection with untimely water supply on land arrays for the reasons of shortage of the electric power, defects of hydraulic engineering constructions and water lifting devices. More than 40% of irrigation lands are operated based on machine irrigation. From total area of such lands of 64% are in Sughd area; 30% of the area of machine irrigation are used based on cascade irrigational network. The irrigated water by means of pumps rises up to the height of 250-300 m that is integrated to heavy consumptions of the electric power;

further expansion of the area under the irrigated lands depends on growth rates of production of electricity. In case of production of sufficient amounts of electric power it would be possible to bring the areas of the irrigated ploughland to 1,6 of one million hectares due to irrigation of big land arrays in the flat, foothill and mountain territories. It requires finishing scales of water consumption till 19-22 cubic km;

for various reasons to 385 thousand hectares of irrigation ploughland are not sufficiently provided with water that leads to considerable losses of agricultural products;

methods of irrigation of crops remain traditional. Noticeable changes in these methods did not happen. Primitive methods of irrigation not only lead to over-expenditure of the used water, but also to expansion of scales of water erosion and bogging of lands. Waters it is used in time 1,5-2,0 more in comparison with evidence-based regulations;

in stony soils of Sughd area there is considerable loss of the irrigated water (to 35%) which back expires to the Syr Darya. However this amount of water in case of accomplishment of calculations for distribution of water resources of the pool is not considered;

in recent years in the country advanced methods of water use and land use are buried in dark oblivion. Even those methods which are traditional and proceed from common sense, with leaving of former generations are used less and less.

Overcoming the listed above problems requires implementation of the following events:

forming of effectively functioning system of the state monitoring of land use and water use;

creation of the plowing-back services on implementation of advanced methods of land use and water use;

completion during the predicted period of concreting of the main irrigation canals;

gradual transition to use of advanced methods of irrigation (tubular, dozhdevalny, drop etc.) for the purpose of the termination of processes of water soil erosion and reducing scales of water use;

accurate respect for technologies and agrotechnical acceptances in processes of land use and water use during the entire period of agricultural works;

expansion of scales of development of new lands based on every possible use of achievements of science and the best practices (terracing of uklonisty lands, construction of small water storage basins, accumulating of rain and snow water etc.);

widespread introduction of achievements of "green revolution" in agricultural industry for the purpose of implementation of progressive shifts in structure of land use;

enhancement of the land and water relations in the direction of creation of efficient incentives at producers of agricultural products on optimum use of land and water resources;

expansion of scales of gardening and wine growing in suburban areas for the purpose of the successful solution of food problem and protection of hillsides from water erosion and other destructive natural phenomena;

expansion of research and design developments for the purpose of stock reduction of osedayemy water storage basins of the alluvial soil in bed and its direction on the irrigated arrays for the purpose of recovery of natural fertility of the soil.

2.4. Road and transport problems

Transformational recession and other known negative events made negative impact on condition of road and transport complex.

The existing roads of general purpose (13612 km) were not reconstructed; 80% of roads were built according to the standard rates existing then 25-45 years ago. Modern cargo cars have big loading and therefore the firm cloth of roads intensively collapses. Only the fifth part of such roads is in good repair, their big part has dangerous defects. Many kilometers of roads can shortly come to complete worthlessness. The third part of bridges and overpasses (automobile) is in unsatisfactory condition, 7% - in emergency.

In recent years investment activity in the road and transport sphere quickened: the construction of highways of Kulob-Khorog-Kulma and the Anzobsky tunnel is begun.

The railroads also require considerable investments on reconstruction and updating. Rather new site of the railroad of Kurgan-Tyube-Yavan, and also recently constructed Road Kurgan-Tyube-Kulyab do not correspond to normative levels of operational loading and are unprofitable.

The railway vehicles are used inefficiently. The basis of the park of the motor transportation companies is constituted by medium lorries who are not in demand. Cars (dump trucks, vans, refrigerators, truck tanks) with specialized body are in great demand. On load-carrying capacity it is not met the demand on low-tonnage (to t 1,5) and big cargo (over 14 t) cars. In motor park of the country the specific weight of midget cars makes 19%, heavy-load - 4, cars with special bodies and with vans - 14 refrigerators - 0,8, of truck tanks - % 6,3.

Railway vehicles generally obsolete (% 65,2). More than 80% of the park of railway vehicles are subject to write-off.

The railway vehicles of rail transport are also considerably obsolete. Average age of goods wagons makes 23 years, passenger - 19,6 of years, locomotives of 20 years, 33% of goods wagons and 30% of locomotives are subject to write-off.

In condition of deep crisis there is air transport. From 85 aircraft belonging to the State unitary air enterprise "Tajikistan", 41 airplanes have age from 20 to 35 laid down. Average age of aircrafts makes 21 years. In case of the average resource equal to 25 years, depreciation of the park of aircrafts makes more than 90%. From total quantity of all aircraft of only 37% of airplanes and 59% of helicopters are in good repair. The small aircraft, including agricultural aircraft, practically stays idle. The airline has no resources for updating of the park of aircrafts. If the situation does not change for the better, then in the next years airline, as such, will cease to exist.

The same situation is characteristic to rail transport. As for road transport, privatization led to complete frustration of the system created for decades. The organization of activities of transport does not answer new realities.

The main directions of development of transport on perspective for the period till 2015 are:

forming and development of modern road and transport complex that assumes transition to single strategic models of their development, forming of single transport corridors taking into account international experience transport гранзитных communications, innovative providing all sectors of transport complex;

integration of transport complex of the country into world transport system;

ensuring the state support of the transport potential necessary for priority development of the transport infrastructure which is part of the international transport corridors, the accelerated development of services, creation at the international airports of transit areas, ensuring effective control over national and foreign operators in the territory of the country;

introduction of modern normative and legal, administrative and economic regulation of transport complex;

attraction of foreign investments for rehabilitation of highways, strengthenings of sites of the railroads, reconstruction of the airports which are part of the international transport corridors for acquisition of locomotives, cars and aircrafts;

enhancement of training of workers, technicians and qualified professionals for all industries of transport complex taking into account the international requirements;

gradual reduction of structure of railway vehicles in all modes of transport in compliance with real requirements of economy and the population;

introduction of modern transport technologies (multimodel transportations, logistics, global logistic provayderstvo, forming of multipurpose terminal complexes, information and logistic centers; creation of leasing transportation companies and technical supply of interaction of different types of transport);

forming of the clear state regional Transport policy aimed at providing effective access of economy and the population of all regions of the country to the markets of different level to both the major administrative and welfare centers of the country;

enhancement of technical and economic basis of increase in safety of vehicles and decrease in negative impact of transport on the environment;

forming of the modern market of motor transportation and aviation services.

2.5. Improvement of quality of manpower

The last decade under the influence of the known circumstances in the country process of degradation of manpower takes place that involves considerable losses of human capacity of the country.

Quality degradation of manpower, is expressed, first of all, in decrease in the employment level of the population, increase in scales of unemployment. From 1991 for 2000 manpower increased, and the number of economically active and occupied population decreased. In 1991 the number of economically active population constituted 78,0 of % of total number of manpower, and by 2000 it decreased to % 56,3. Reducing absolute number and specific weight occupied in industrial industries also is consequence of quality degradation of labor potential. For the considered period of time the specific weight occupied in the industry and construction decreased with 20,5 to % 9,1, on transport and communication - with 4,7 to % 2,4. For all these years in the industry of the country the number of the disposed workers steadily exceeded number employed while in agricultural industry the opposite tendency took place. In the industry there is reducing number of persons employed in the knowledge-intensive industries. So, the annual average number of the personnel occupied in the chemical and petrochemical industry was reduced with one thousand 10,8 to 3,5 of one thousand people, in mechanical engineering and metal working - with 41,9 to 10,2 of one thousand people.

In the country the prestige of education decreases that finds reflection as manpower.

Respectively there is reducing release of qualified specialists. In average professional educational institutions release of specialists was reduced by % 50,3. Release of specialists for the industry and construction was especially sharply reduced. In 1991 the specific weight of graduates for these industries made % 23,5; in 1995 - 20,1; in 2000 - 17,4 of % of the total number of graduates. Repeated reducing training of workers for non-ferrous metallurgy, mechanical engineering and metal working, agricultural industry, transport took place. There was sharp reducing scales of training of machine operators on metal working, drivers-mechanics, mechanics, electricians, plumbers, welders, etc.

Degradation of manpower happens also in connection with increase in time of job search. In 1996 on average on job search for one

the unemployed 4,1 of month, and in 2000 - 6, month left. If in 1996 only 4, the % which found a job looked for work more than one year, then in 2000 the specific weight of those increased to % 21,1.

The mass stop of industrial enterprises and curtailment of construction activities, strengthening of migration of able-bodied population, expansion of scales of application of unskilled manual work, reducing requirements of economy in qualified to labor power are basic reasons of deterioration in qualitative indexes of manpower. The external labor migration led to reducing absolute number of specialists and skilled workers of personnel in the country.

Quality degradation of manpower takes place and owing to increase in difference between payroll number and the real number of the workers occupied in the national economy. At many companies people are listed personnel, and actually for a long time do not work owing to what there is their disqualification.

Degradation of manpower happens also in connection with liquidation of system of professional orientation in schools, sharp quality degradation of teaching and level of knowledge at pupils of all steps of educational system of the country.

In the country the growth trend takes place in recent years. In the long term, according to forecast calculations, it will proceed. Therefore the question of improvement of quality of manpower which solution will allow to increase the social and economic level of the population is on the agenda.

The last will become real when implementing the following events:

obligatory improvement of quality of work of comprehensive school, teaching content improvement, increase in level of knowledge of pupils, active orientation of schools to labor education of the younger generation, forming at the last elementary labor skills;

reorganization of system of professional and secondary vocational education taking into account compelling needs of economy;

repeated increase in school enrollment, especially female youth directed to study in initial professional educational institutions, colleges and technical schools of the Russian Federation;

complete recovery of system of professional orientation of youth taking into account the happening changes in structure of economy, and also taking into account experience of other countries. Recovery of the industrial practice plants functioning on the principles of the market relations;

adaptation of system of training of skilled workers and specialists to the market relations and the happening shifts in the labor market;

creation of progressive system of incentives, both for workers, and for employers of rather continuous advanced training of personnel, their study on the job;

wide use of nonconventional methods of employment increase of the population, in particular, flexible work arrangements, creation of cooperatives, associations of national art crafts where manual and at the same time highly skilled work can find broad application;

mass development of the micro and small business included in system of production cooperation with large-scale machine-building and other knowledge-intensive productions;

purposeful interstate regulation of external labor migration taking into account more complete realization not only individual interests of labor migrants, but also interests of the country in general. Approval of state bodies of the Russian Federation and other foreign countries of question of the target direction of workers on construction of hydroelectric power station, combined heat and power plant, the NPP, transport tunnels, DSK, ZhBK, on related machine-building, chemical, construction and other enterprises, having returned home, they could perform similar works competently;

effective use of media, and also Internet opportunities for labor education, transfer of professional knowledge, the best practices, scientific information for the purpose of assistance to continuous increase in level of education and qualification of personnel.

2.6. Problems of economic safety

Tajikistan now and in the foreseeable future needs essential strengthening of economic safety which is in turn the main condition of ensuring national security, authentic political sovereignty of the country.

The economic safety means forming of favorable material and financial conditions for the population, continual improvement of the personality, ensuring social and economic and political stability, maintenance of defense capability of the country at the necessary level, preserving territorial integrity of the state, exception of any manifestations of separatism, terrorism and external threats.

The problems anyway connected with economic safety of the country shall be accurately differentiated and at the same time clearly specify external and internal vulnerability of the state. The solution of these problems in economic, cash and financial and social spheres, determination of ways of overcoming economic dependence of Tajikistan shall be considered in case of development all perspective programs and projects.

Comparison of threshold values (IZ) of economic safety with actual data shows that in Tajikistan there was extremely difficult situation. As PZ are compared to GDP, in the absolute relation they can be much lower, than PZ in the majority of the countries of the world. Taking into account this PZ of economic safety of Tajikistan significantly differ from actual data. These distinctions are shown in the table No. 2.

Threshold value of level of investments in fixed capital makes 25% of GDP. In Tajikistan this level is 4,1 times less in comparison with regulation of economic safety. Besides it must be kept in mind that more than 90% of fixed capital of the country physically and morally became outdated that creates serious obstacles on the ways of acceleration of economic growth and providing competitiveness of domestic goods in the internal and external markets.

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